Download Locations:
Summary:
In explaining the decision to invade Iraq and oust Saddam Hussein from power, the Administration asserted, among other justifications, that the regime of Saddam Hussein had a working relationship with the Al Qaeda organization. The Administration stated that the relationship dated to the early 1990s, and was based on a common interest in confronting the United States. The Administration assertions were derived from U.S. intelligence showing a pattern of contacts with Al Qaeda when its key founder, Osama bin Laden, was based in Sudan in the early to mid-1990s and continuing after he relocated to Afghanistan in 1996. Critics maintain that subsequent research demonstrates that the relationship, if it existed, was not "operational," and that no hard data has come to light indicating the two entities conducted any joint terrorist attacks. Some major hallmarks of a consistent relationship were absent, and several experts outside and within the U.S. government believe that contacts between Iraq and Al Qaeda were sporadic, unclear, or subject to alternate explanations. Another pillar of the Administration argument, which has applications for the current U.S. effort to stabilize Iraq, rested on reports of contacts between Baghdad and an Islamist Al Qaeda affiliate group, called Ansar al-Islam, based in northern Iraq in the late 1990s. Although the connections between Ansar al-Islam and Saddam Hussein's regime were subject to debate, the organization evolved into what is now known as Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQ-I). AQ-I has been a numerically small but operationally major component of the Sunni Arab-led insurgency that frustrated U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq. Since mid-2007, in part facilitated by combat conducted by additional U.S. forces sent to Iraq as part of a "troop surge," the U.S. military has had some success exploiting differences between AQ-I and Iraqi Sunni political, tribal, and insurgent leaders. These successes, which in some cases have resulted in the virtual expulsion of AQ-I from many of its sanctuaries particularly in Baghdad and in Anbar Province, have weakened AQ-I "substantially," according to the April 8-9, 2008 congressional testimony of General David Petraeus, commanding general of U.S. -led forces in Iraq. However, General Petraeus said that AQ-I still poses a significant threat, particularly in northern Iraq where battles against it continue. There have been indications that AQ-I is attempting to conduct activities outside Iraq in a process that some describe as "spillover" from Iraq into the broader Middle East. However, another interpretation is that the U.S.-led war in Iraq has stimulated radical activities outside Iraq that are sympathetic to Al Qaeda. Analysis of the broader implications of AQ-I might depend on the degree to which AQ-I is in contact with the remaining structures of the Al Qaeda organization that organized the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. The Al Qaeda - AQ-I relationship remains unclear and a subject of debate among experts. This report will be updated as warranted by developments. See also: CRS Report RL31339: Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by Kenneth Katzman.
