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Summary:
In his 2002 and 2003 State of the Union messages, President Bush characterized Iraq as a grave potential threat to the United States because of its refusal to abandon its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs as required by U.N. Security Council resolutions and the potential for it to transfer WMD to terrorist groups. Since September 2002, the President has said that unless Iraq fully disarms in cooperation with United Nations weapons inspectors, the United States would lead a coalition to achieve that disarmament militarily. U.S. officials have made clear that this would include the ouster of Iraq's President Saddam Hussein's regime. On March 17, 2003, the United States launched "Operation Iraqi Freedom," a war effort to disarm Iraq and change its regime. Since February 2003, the Administration has stressed that regime change through U.S.-led military action would yield benefits beyond disarmament, including liberation from an oppressive regime for the Iraqi people and enhancement of the prospects for peace and democracy throughout the Middle East. The goal of regime change in Iraq has been declared U.S. policy since November 1998. Even before then, U.S. efforts to oust Saddam had been pursued, with varying degrees of intensity, since the end of the Gulf war in 1991. These efforts primarily involved U.S. backing for opposition groups inside and outside Iraq, some of which have been receiving U.S. political and financial support and military training. According to several experts, past efforts to change the regime floundered because of limited U.S. commitment, disorganization of the Iraqi opposition, and the efficiency and ruthlessness of Iraq's several overlapping intelligence and security forces. Previous U.S. administrations ruled out major U.S. military action to change Iraq's regime, believing such action would be costly, risky, and not necessarily justified by the level of Iraq's lack of compliance on WMD disarmament. The character of the government that would replace Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, should Operation Iraqi Freedom succeed, is yet to be determined. Some Administration officials had hoped that major military and governmental defections from the Hussein regime would serve as the core of a successor government. However, the Hussein regime has generally held together throughout Operation Iraqi Freedom, and the Bush Administration is apparently turning to the exiled opposition groups to form the core of a new regime, although Iraqis currently living within the country are likely to be incorporated into a new government eventually. It is possible that some of the pre-existing disputes and schisms within the opposition could break out into a post-war power struggle. This report will be updated as warranted by major developments.
